Since the end of the second World War, the UK has had either a Conservative or Labour government, with only two exceptions, those being the coalition government between 2010 and 2015, and the confidence and supply agreement between the Conservatives and DUP in 2017. Both arrangements however saw the Conservative party as the leading partner. 

What these results do not show however, is the rising support seen for smaller parties throughout the UK. The 2024 election saw the two main parties (Labour and Conservatives) gain less than 60% of the vote for the first time since universal suffrage. Duverger’s Law suggests that there is a correlation between the simple-majority single-ballot system and the two-party system. It claims that where there is a winner-takes-all system per constituency, the likely result at the national level is a two-party system.

How well does this apply to contemporary British politics? Duverger wrote about this concept in 1954, and it is still cited today over 70 years on. I will suggest the UK is breaking away from a two-party system, despite the constraints imposed by Duverger’s law.

The Liberal Democrats recovered significant losses in the 2024 election after their electoral collapse post coalition, receiving 3.5 million votes and 72 seats. Part of their success is attributed to the ‘Gail’s strategy’, seeing them target mostly conservative areas, which so happened to correlate with Gail’s bakery chain locations. The party promoted a strong commitment to house building alongside strong training and education. Ed Davey, the party leader, personally advocated for increased attention on social care workers and focusing on local issues in local politics, often with a fun and entertaining campaign material.

The Green party has gained significant traction since electing Zack Polanski as leader of the party in September of 2025. Membership surged from 68,000 in September to over 200,000 as of March 1st, 2026. In the general election, the Greens received nearly 2 million votes with 4 seats. Yet they also came second in 40 seats, up from just one in 2019 suggesting the rise in smaller parties is rivalling that of larger parties unlike it has in previous elections. The Greens ran on a platform of real hope and change. An analysis of their manifesto suggests strong public sector pay, environmental protection and economic growth with tax and spend policies. However, concern was raised over financial markets, suggesting similar problems to gilt markets that Liz Truss suffered the consequences from.

Reform UK received 4.1 million votes in the 2024 election yet only received 5 seats. The disproportionality of the system is clear here, with reform winning only 5 seats, compared to the Liberal Democrats 72 seats, despite receiving 500k less seats than Reform UK. Reform UK placed second in 98 seats, 89 of those behind Labour and 9 behind the Conservatives. In a similar vein to the Green party, this suggests niche parties breathing down the neck of the major two parties, and that they can contest these major parties in seats that once were strongholds to the respective two parties. In the same manifesto analysis as to the Green party, Reform UK are predicted to produce the weakest economic growth in all nationwide parties and public sector pay yet are the strongest in legal and illegal immigration controls.

The cause of this rise growth in small parties can be attributed to the pendulum effect experienced in two party systems. This pendulum considers two core elements, that of the cost of governance, and the thermostat effect. The cost for governance considers a powerful government, where voters are faced with a clear alternative between parties, and an electorate desire for a party of competent governance. The thermostat suggests that voters preferences change depending on who is in power. For example, if a government that favours a small state is in power, then voters are more likely to vote for a party who favours big government.

The rise in smaller political groups suggests a lack of trust in the main parties to govern efficiently and competently. As a result, many voters have turned to smaller parties to communicate their dissatisfaction with the status quo. And suggest a breaking away from the two-party system. Whilst historically, voters have swung between two parties, discontent in the current system and the similarity that arises between Labour and Conservative, voters have accepted the risk of wasted votes and turned to smaller parties for some hope of change.

In 1951, there was an average of 2.2 candidates per constituency, in 2024, that rose to 6.9. Further analysis suggests that there is a strong negative relationship between the number of candidates, and the two-party vote share, where more candidates equal lower two-party vote share.

Duverger’s law has helped guide a post war belief of two-party politics. Yet in changing times and a dissatisfaction for the two current parties, voters have been driven to the fringes of the political system, despite the constraints a first past the post system imposes upon voters. Voters instead want change, and the disproportionate nature of the voting system has harmed these parties’ prospects for future success. It would follow that voters may turn to European proportional alternatives as a way of making their vote count, rather than a potential wasted vote in a plurality system. The problem British voters face in the words of George Galloway in that voters must choose between ‘two cheeks of the same backside’, and they have decided to reject this principle.

References

Baker, T. (2024, March 5). Who is George Galloway, the new MP for Rochdale? Retrieved May 4, 2026 , from https://news.sky.com/story/who-is-george-galloway-the-new-mp-for-rochdale-13083126

Bartle, J., & Allen, N. (2025, September). An unpredictable pendulum: UK electoral dynamics in the twenty-first century. British Politics, pp. 339-362.

BBC News. (5, July 2024). UK General election 2024 Results. Retrieved May 4, 2026, from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/results

Bennie, L., & Widfeldt, A. (2025, October 30). Voices from the edge make breakthrough in British politics: The Greens, Reform UK, and independents. Parliamentary Affairs, pp. 110-127.

Cracknell, R., Uberoi, E., & Burton, M. (2023, August 9). UK Election Statistics: 1918-2023, A Long Century of Elections. Westminster: House Of Commons Library.

Party, G. (2026, March 1). The Green Party of England and Wales Surpasses 200,000 Members. Retrieved May 4, 2026, from https://greenparty.org.uk/2026/03/01/the-green-party-of-england-and-wales-surpasses-200000-members/#:~:text=Membership%20triples%20since%20September%202025,that%20signalled%20shifting%20political%20tides.

Stafford R, Alexander J, Axon S, Boakes Z, Cantarello E, Croker AR, et al. (2025) Evaluating post 2024 election scenarios for the UK based on political party manifestos. PLoS One 20(5): e0324942. https://doi.org/10.1371/ journal.pone.0324942

Steerpike. (2025, April 9). Lib Dems double down on Gail’s strategy. Retrieved May 4, 2026, from https://spectator.com/article/lib-dems-double-down-on-gails-strategy/