It is difficult to think of a by-election in recent British history with stakes quite as high as
Makerfield. The contest on June 18 th has the potential to become a turning point for both the
Labour Party and the country itself, determining not only whether Keir Starmer lives on as
Labour leader, but whether Nigel Farage’s rise towards Downing Street can still be arrested.
At the centre of it all is Andy Burnham. Long regarded as one of the most popular figures
among Labour members, Burnham is now seeking a return to Westminster amid growing
unrest within the party. With Labour continuing to trail Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in the
polls, and dissatisfaction with Keir Starmer growing across both the parliamentary party and
grassroots membership, Makerfield represents far more than a local contest: should Burnham
return to Parliament, a leadership challenge appears inevitable.
While other names have circulated as potential successors to Starmer – most notably Wes
Streeting, so far the most prominent Cabinet resignation – Burnham occupies a unique
position within Labour politics. Streeting may have support among sections of the
Parliamentary Labour Party, but Burnham remains far more popular among the membership.
In hypothetical head-to-head contests against Starmer, Burnham consistently performs
stronger than any other potential challenger. Polling conducted by Labour List found that
Starmer would win in a head-to-head against Streeting but also against fellow leadership
potentials Al Carns, Darren Jones, Bridget Phillipson, Louise Haigh, Yvette Cooper, Shabana
Mahmood and Lucy Powell. It is only Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband and Andy Burnham who
would win more support than Starmer in a contest, with Burnham by far the most popular
candidate.
For many within Labour, therefore, the ‘King of the North’ represents perhaps the party’s
final opportunity to reconnect with those working-class voters drifting towards Reform. Yet
there is also a growing fear that his return may simply come too late.
That fear is understandable. Reform have now led national polling for well over a year, with
Farage increasingly treated not as a fringe protest figure but as a genuine prospective Prime
Minister. Even recent probes into an undeclared £5 million donation seem to have done little
damage to either his or his party’s popularity. Though nothing in Westminster is ever certain,
Labour’s trajectory currently appears bleak. The question now is whether replacing Starmer
with Burnham would fundamentally alter its fortunes, or merely delay electoral collapse until
2029.
Burnham certainly benefits from a status as an ‘outsider’ – untainted by the actions of the
current government in the same way most other potential candidates are. He also carries with
him an impressive record as Manchester mayor, and a leftward shift in policy that would
mark a distinct break with the Whitehall status quo. For Labour to retain any hope of
avoiding electoral annihilation in 2029, they need to reconnect with their core base of
working-class supporters, who increasingly feel left behind by Keir Starmer’s technocratic
incrementalism. Burnham’s brand of ‘Manchesterism’ seems their best hope of doing so.
The byelection is certainly no shoo-in for Labour, however. Although Burnham performed
strongly there during the mayoral elections, the constituency represents precisely the kind of
seat Reform believe they can win. Predominantly white, working-class, Brexit-voting and
increasingly distrustful of Westminster politics, it reflects the demographic realignment
currently reshaping British politics. Burnham, then, risks appearing less like a local
representative and more like a Westminster figure parachuting himself into a safe route back
to Parliament. In an era defined increasingly by distrust of political elites, that perception may
prove dangerous. Reform, meanwhile, have selected Robert Kenyon, a local plumber and
Army reservist, as their candidate – an archetypal anti-establishment choice designed to
contrast sharply with Labour’s political machinery.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the election campaign itself has spiralled into controversy almost
from the outset. The Green Party faced calls, including from former leader Caroline Lucas, to
stand aside in favour of Burnham to avoid splitting the anti-Reform vote. Though the Greens
officially resisted such pressure, their candidate stood down just hours after being announced,
citing “personal and family reasons”. Shortly afterwards, he apologised for social media
activity relating to conspiracy theories surrounding attacks on ambulances operated by a
Jewish charity.
Yet Reform’s campaign has hardly escaped scrutiny either. Kenyon’s own online activity has
come under scrutiny over alleged links to far-right campaigners, underlining once again the
difficulties Reform face as they attempt to transition from an insurgent movement to a
credible party of government.
Another aspect that may become crucial is the emergence of Restore. The first polls indicate
that Burnham is narrowly ahead on 43%, with Reform close behind on 40%, but it is the
performance of Restore candidate Rebecca Smith that may ultimately prove decisive. Even a
relatively small vote share for Restore – who are currently polling at 7% – could split the
right-wing vote sufficiently to allow Burnham through the middle.
Farage appears acutely aware of this threat. He has publicly criticised Elon Musk, for his
social media support for Restore and its leader Rupert Lowe, stating “quite what he’s trying
to achieve, I have no idea,” and exposing growing tensions on the populist right. For all the
attention focused on Burnham and Labour, the Makerfield by-election may therefore reveal
just as much about the stability of Reform’s coalition as it does about Labour’s future.
All of this leaves the fate of British politics resting, improbably, on the shoulders of a
northern constituency few outside Westminster had previously paid much attention to.
Makerfield may contain just a fraction of the British electorate, but its by-election now
carries national consequences. If Burnham wins, Labour may yet convince itself it still has a
route back into contention. If he loses, the psychological blow to the government could prove
catastrophic.
In that sense, Makerfield is not simply a by-election. It is a test of whether the
Labour Party can still recover, or whether British politics has already entered the age of
Farage.
