The 21st century political landscape is experiencing a rise in party fragmentation and decline in partisanship as traditional centre-left and centre-right parties no longer appear to be sufficient for the average informed/semi-informed citizen in the UK.
But why is that the case? For much of the 20th century, partisanship and demographic structures were once reliable indicators for voting behaviours: Middle class southerners leaning Conservative, and the “red wall” prominence within the midlands working class communities. But this has seemed to have somewhat dissolved, and the reasons are far more complex.
So, is it expected voter fatigue which explains the reasonings behind the two-party decline, or possibly an unexpected factor?
To put it simply, citizens seek change following long-term party holds. British elections have historically switched after a decade of single party governance, as seen with the New labour political period from 1997-2010, and the Thatcherite era 1979-1990.
So, the process seems simple. After extended dominance, electoral realignment occurs to the opposite political centre, often after governmental failures such as partygate or the war on terror. And yet, following the 2024 general election which did deliver party change, political harmony seems to be more disfigured than ever before, shifting the traditional electoral outcome cycle. Since the 2024 general election,Two by-elections have already occurred, with both of which being traditional Labour strongholds and safe seats. Both seats were lost, Gorton and Denton to the Green party and Runcorn and Helsby to Reform.
Ideologically, the green party is left-wing, environmentally-focused and strong on social justice, while Reform UK presents itself as a right-wing nationalist party primarily focused on tightening migration. So how did these opposing parties both snatch a seat on the labour throne?
The answer lies in their shared political method.
Populism.
So what is Populism? Broadly defined by the Oxford dictionary, populism is “The policies or principles of any of various political parties which seek to represent the interests of ordinary people” Offering identity to those feeling unheard in mainstream politics.”
Populism in particular stands out in western democracies as consensus politics in these liberal democracies often fail to offer various political ideological groups a voice of reason to release discourse. Populism instead emphasises the power of the people, giving a broad sense of identity to those who feel to be “wronged” by their governments.
Its recent gain in popularity has occurred as people feel more politically fragmented in this century than before, with the 2008 economic crash, Iraq war, and the last 14 years of a consecutive government consisting of five Prime ministers (two of which were unelected) and the partygate scandal. To the population, the two long standing parties no longer at their core acted as representatives for the public, but self-interested individuals.
Furthermore, the populist movement within the UK differs as both the Green and Reform parties tackle the two-party dominance caused by the electoral system by selecting a target group of communities to gain overall support and trust in.
The Greens do so through grassroots, cultivating the youth and humanitarians, whereas reform, by contrast, do so through building a base with wealthy businessmen, as well as older, rural demographics. These methods have met extraordinary success, with reform holding a record membership of 278,541, with greens trailing behind at 216,000, highlighting the success of using populist tactics, hinting that this train of process is yet to finish.
Now, to answer the core question. Is populism the future or downfall of British politics? Shall we expect to see all parties converge into supporting the people? Will it continue to rise in popularity?
Evidently, populism appears to be surging in popularity and success within the UK not only in memberships but with political success, with Reform gaining 1454 councillors and Greens 441. Yet with this, the centre-left and right remain firm on incrementalism, which appears to be no longer sufficient following statistics.
However, the limits of populism are already beginning to appear through the cracks. Political theorist Chantal Mouffe argues populism risks eradicating forms of agreement through framing political disputes as moral battles between the “elite” and “pure people”, producing party polarisation rather than bipartisanship. This has been seen with the newly formed Restore Britain, a political party founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe. Fragmentation is also seen on the left, where the Green party has clashed with Your Party, another left-wing populist party. Thus, repeated conflict caused by populism risks governmental instability, as healthy democracies require a level of consensus.
Furthermore, the populist parties themselves carry structural contradictions which undermine their central claims. Reform UK was founded as and legally remains, a private limited company, which contradicts its movement of being for the ordinary people. The Green Party, meanwhile, is led by an individual who does not hold a seat in the House of Commons,substantially limiting the party’s ability to use its growing support base to cause legislative impact.
Therefore, the honest answer is that as populism remains a growing political tactic, it is currently neither the near future or downfall of British politics.
Populism acts as a tool, signaling that the dominant political power is insufficient to the public’s needs, and that revision is needed. The dominant two parties’ reliance on the incremental political model has failed, and is in need of change after not acting in time. Populism is a necessary disruption to traditional politics to inform those in power that change must be done, but the impact of populism will unfold on how or whether traditional parties respond and choose to act against it.
Populism, in conclusion, is not to be feared as a downfall, but must be watched carefully.
Bibliography.
UK Parliament (2026) Elections in Denton and Reddish (13 April 2010 – 30 May 2024). House of Commons Library. Available at:
https://electionresults.parliament.uk/constituency-areas/167/elections (Accessed: 14 May 2026).
UK Parliament (2026) Elections in Halton (13 April 2010 – 30 May 2024). House of Commons Library. Available at:
https://electionresults.parliament.uk/constituency-areas/261/elections (Accessed: 14 May 2026).
UK Parliament (2026) Elections in Weaver Vale (13 April 2010 – 30 May 2024). House of Commons Library. Available at:
https://electionresults.parliament.uk/constituency-areas/607/elections (Accessed: 14 May 2026).
Mouffe, C. (2013) ‘Democratic Politics and Conflict: An Agonistic Approach’, in Lakitsch, M. (ed.) Political Power Reconsidered. Wiesbaden: Springer VS, pp. 16–29.
Rather than presenting populism as wholly positive or negative, this article acknowledges both its strengths and limitations.