Over recent years, the tide has been turning across the thirty-two Counties on the Island of Ireland. In the Six Counties, Sinn Féin’s Leas Uachtarán Michelle O’Neill has made history by becoming the first Nationalist First Minister, and recent polls have indicated that Mary Lou MacDonald could be on her way to becoming Taoiseach in the next set of Dail elections. As for the Unionists, they have become more defensive around the North’s constitutional status. Emma Little-Pengelly was embarrassed when Donald Trump called for a ‘merger’, and soon got on camera to say that a United Ireland would ‘never ever happen’. Her predecessor, Arlene Foster tabled an amendment to the Crime & Policing Bill that would outlaw people singing ‘Up the Ra’, in an attempt to keep unionism in the Westminster status quo, at a time when Sinn Fein have the most MPs from the North of Ireland but remain voiceless through abstentionism.
With the prospect of two nationalist leaders in both governing institutions on the Island of Ireland, we must ask ourselves if politicians are delaying the inevitable reunification of Ireland. Even if reunification is becoming more likely, what would a United Ireland, and indeed a United Kingdom, look like? Many people on the island have differing ideas about the outlook of a new thirty two County nation, with there being many issues which need negotiation. One of which being whether the twenty-six counties in the South will take on universal healthcare, or if the North will absorb into the mixed healthcare system. How can it be governed? Would a federal system work better, with counties being similar to States in the U.S., or use a Westminster system with smaller constituencies.
Also how will the new Ireland be seen internationally: will it uphold neutrality, maintain a firm place in the EU, or have to change its political stance completely to accommodate the Unionists who were strong advocates for Brexit, with the intention of being much closer to the UK than the Irish. Yet, underneath all those critical issues is the small matter of the flag and anthem, both of which will be crucial in keeping the peace between all communities in the new Republic. The current flag of the Republic of Ireland is the iconic tri-colour, a bridge of peace between the Catholics and the Protestants with the green and orange meeting in the neutral white. Amhrán na bhFiann has become a hymn about the struggle for independence. But can they remain in a new nation formed from many different religious communities, as a symbol of the past? Would the Unionists wish to embrace the Irish symbols of nationalism, or would it add fuel to the fire if they were surrounded by Amhrán na bhFiann at Windsor Park instead of their beloved God Save the King?
These issues, however insignificant when compared to things which will change people’s daily lives, will be at the core of the new country and, to avoid bitterness and embrace community cohesion, it is vital that decision makers get them right. But before any reunification, we must go back in time to look at the Good Friday Agreement, we must also ask if both communities have been hoisted by their own petard. A once revered Agreement that brought about long sought peace in the Six Counties has, in the long run, stalled the system of prospective reunification discussions and the day-to-day running of the Assembly and Executive at Stormont, due to a lack of foresight of DUP walkouts and subsequent breakdowns, which returned power back to Westminster temporarily.
All this goes without mentioning the fact that Irish sovereignty lies solely in the hands of the Secretary of State. In 1998, the unionist majority was unquestionable, but as in the words of staunch Unionist Ian Paisley, Catholics ‘breed like vermin and multiply like Rabbits’ – and whilst Catholics do have larger families, I myself being a product of one, it is because of demographic change and shifting political identities that goes against traditional community lines that has placed the once assumed unionist majority into question. Even if it is not a Catholic majority yet, it is much closer than it once was. But will the British Government ever trigger a border poll and relinquish sovereignty over the Six, or will they keep a prospective majority voiceless forever and not ever call it? The UK holds all the cards, and if things do not change, Westminster will always dominate West Belfast and the rest of the nationalist communities.
So, with all the talk, when could the border poll happen? Sinn Fein believes it can happen by 2030, which keeps politicians on all sides of Westminster apprehensive. Most other Irish parties are generally ready to pounce when the British give them the hesitant thumbs up. There is also debate around whether the preparation should be done before or after the vote. One thing that can be learnt from the disaster of Brexit is that if we do the deal first, and voters take to the ballots knowing what will happen, means we skip bureaucracy, lies and distrust in politics and have a smooth transition of sovereignty – so everyone knows how the land lies. But with complex history and bubbling sectarian divides creeping back up in the form of the ‘New IRA’, to have a peaceful process of making the deal, would doing it after a vote be better than jumping ahead on planning unity which the people may reject? The only certainty through this is that it will be complex. The outlook of a new Ireland may have a new flag and anthem, but the turbulent path to a peaceful Republic will be indelibly marked on her soil, and the history which has scarred the lives of many will live on for centuries to come. Whilst unity may be looming, the delicate nature must remain central to all talks so that the island may achieve peace at last.