On the 9th of October, Ukrainian and European diplomats landed in Miami to discuss what Ukraine’s security would look like after the fighting had ceased. [1, 2] Meanwhile however, President Trump was trying to hatch a deal with President Putin.
By the end of the day, the US had issued a temporary license for diesel from Russia until April 2027, with an immediate shipment of 300,000 tonnes to America and the global marketplace, followed by 500,000 in November, and millions more after that. [3 ,4, 5] This was a dramatic reversal of years of sustained pressure on Russia, and is arguably the first time Trump’s soft rhetoric on Russia has been realised. [5]
Whilst on the surface an act of energy policy, it is very obviously a means of throwing red meat to voters weeks out from the midterms on the 3rd of November, midterms in which the Republicans are expected to suffer heavy losses. [6, 7, 8] The package amounts to roughly a day of global diesel demand, and it won’t fix a shortage driven predominantly by the war in Iran, which Trump started along with Israel. [2, 9, 10, 11] Even the schedule gives the game away, the next shipment is due in November, though Trump neglected to mention the exact day, i.e. whether this would arrive before the 3rd. [5] The headline matters far more than the barrels, and all of it is timed for the ballot box. The sanction waiver comes only weeks after Trump signed the Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, a law meant to tighten sanctions on Russian officials, banks and shadow-fleet tankers [5, 12]
It gets worse, Trump has publicly blamed Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries for the jump in prices – a huge stretch at best. [2, 6] A US official goes further, saying Trump struck the deal after President Zelensky ignored half a dozen requests to stop hitting them, and that his envoys warned Kyiv that intelligence sharing could be restricted if the strikes continued. [1, 12] Even if we take this to be true, it is clear that Trump is merely playing politics, deflecting from his ongoing war in Iran in order to shun responsibility for the pump prices he has so drastically inflated. Playing politics is normal, but throwing an ally currently under bombardment is not.
Ukraine’s drones are among the best cards it has to play against Russia, and they are working. Russia has had a domestic diesel export ban since July, after Ukrainian strikes cut its production by roughly 30%. [13] So the US now wants Russia to export fuel that Ukraine’s strikes made scarce, and wants Ukraine to stop the strikes that made it scarce. A country under invasion is being told to ease off so American drivers don’t suffer. Kyiv did not simply refuse. By the same account, Zelensky rejected a one-sided pause but offered a mutual energy ceasefire. [1, 12] He has also said Ukraine is ready for symmetrical de-escalatory steps, while calling any sanctions relief for Russia without a lasting agreement “an obvious weakness”. [4, 14] A mutual ceasefire would have bound Moscow as well. Washington chose the option that rewarded themselves.
Ukraine is not a NATO member, and America owed it no treaty guarantee. But for years the West armed it, funded it and told it that it would not stand alone. A partnership like that is only worth what the stronger side will give up to keep it. The leader of the free world telling a nation at war that its leader should go [6, 15] is a clear sign that Trump is uninterested in the long game, he wants to be proved right and win quickly. The Iran war has dragged on for months [11], and Trump needs something to hide behind. Would he have eased sanctions had the petrol prices returned? It is impossible to know, but it is plausible to suggest not.
Every government that leans on America will have noticed. They will have seen that Trump values them only insofar as they give him, as he sees it, political capital. That may lead some nations to reconsider whether the US or China is their main partner. The contrast between the two has rarely been starker. Beijing has been far more consistent in its aims, above all on Taiwan, and the same cannot be said for Trump’s US. [16] That raises the obvious question of what Taipei will be thinking when it sees Trump trade away a partner’s interests for a quick headline. If US support depends on the polling, nations that can may be wise to stay quiet. Those that can’t, like Taiwan, may have a big problem on their hands.
The licence is temporary and revocable, and the volumes are small, so it is arguably more gesture than strategy. [3, 5] But that only proves the point. If the sums are small and the policy is a gesture, then Ukraine’s security was spent on a gesture. Alliances don’t usually die in dramatic betrayals. They wear away when the people who made the promises decide, one cheap trade at a time, that keeping them costs too much.
Sources:
- Axios, “Trump announces major diesel deal with Putin, infuriating Ukraine”, 9 Oct 2026. https://www.axios.com/2026/10/09/trump-putin-diesel-agreement-ukraine-war 2. AFP via Kuwait Times, “Trump hails Russian diesel deal as midterms loom”, 9 Oct 2026.
https://kuwaittimes.com/article/51289/world/trump-hails-russian-diesel-deal-as-midter ms-loom/
- Euromaidan Press, “US Treasury license clears sale and import of Russian diesel”, 10 Oct 2026.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/10/10/washington-makes-it-official-us-treasury-lic ense-clears-sale-and-import-of-russian-diesel-blocked-by-sanctions/
- ITV News, “Trump says US to obtain diesel from Russia despite energy sanctions”, 9 Oct 2026.
https://www.itv.com/news/2026-10-09/trump-says-us-to-obtain-diesel-from-russia-des pite-energy-sanctions
- AP via WLOX, “Trump says US to get diesel from Russia, relaxing pressure on Moscow to ease prices before midterms”, 9 Oct 2026.
https://www.wlox.com/2026/10/09/trump-says-us-get-diesel-russia-relaxing-pressure moscow-ease-prices-before-midterms/
- Arab News (AFP), “Trump, Zelensky clash over diesel deal as Russian strikes kill 21”.
https://www.arabnews.com/world/trump-zelensky-clash-over-diesel-deal-as-russian-s trikes-kill-21-3005580
- Channel 4 News, “US Midterms: Are Americans about to punish Trump?”, 14 Oct 2026.
https://www.channel4.com/news/us-midterms-are-americans-about-to-punish-trump
- NPR via Michigan Public Radio, “The 2026 midterm general election season is upon us. Here’s what to watch”, 8 Sep 2026.
https://www.michiganpublic.org/2026-09-08/the-2026-midterm-general-election-seaso n-is-upon-us-heres-what-to-watch
- Oilprice.com, “What’s Trump’s Thinking Behind The ‘Diesel Deal’ With Russia?” https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Whats-Trumps-Thinking-Behind-The-Diesel-De al-With-Russia.amp.html
- Newsweek, “Trump’s Russia diesel deal: price impacts, experts”. https://www.newsweek.com/trump-russia-diesel-deal-price-impacts-pump-experts-12 557596
- Task & Purpose, “Tracking America’s latest conflict: The Iran war timeline” (updated 8 Sep 2026). https://taskandpurpose.com/news/iran-war-timeline/
- Kyiv Post, “US Envoys Pressure Kyiv on Refinery Strikes”.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/86671
- Hellenic Shipping News, “Russian refining sector struggles amid intensifying Ukrainian attacks”. https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/?p=1148964 14. Agenzia Nova, report on Zelensky’s response to the diesel deal. https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news/Zelensky-eases-sanctions-against-Russia-an d-is-a-clear-weakness/
- Political Wire, “Trump Calls for Zelensky’s Removal”, 10 Oct 2026. https://politicalwire.com/2026/10/10/trump-calls-for-zelenskys-removal/ 16. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “The Many ‘One Chinas’: Multiple Approaches to Taiwan and China”, 9 Feb 2023.
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2023/02/the-many-one-chinas-multiple-appr oaches-to-taiwan-and-china