Taborah Ajayi: The Death of The Two-Party System

Since the 1950s, electoral phenomena has invariably faced a constant battle between the Tories and Labour whereby their combined national vote for the last five decades has always exceeded 70%, with third party vote at its minimum. Despite this, the 2024 general election was the first time that four parties secured over 10 percent of the vote, involving the Liberal Democrats, Reform and the Greens gaining traction. Subsequently, the share of the vote shared by the two main parties fell to 57%, marking an extreme historical shift. With that being said, it appears FPTP can no longer ensure the electoral dominance between the Tories and Labour, prompting the electorate to question whether such voter volatility signals the end of a two party system.

 

Recently, populist approaches adopted by the Greens and Reform UK have been more of an appeal to voters as Labour’s frequent U-turns and scandals have caused a wave of dissatisfaction amongst the public. Labour’s 2024 Manifesto promised not to increase taxes on working people, aiming to ensure taxes were kept as low as possible. Yet so far, Reeves’ budget involved freezing tax thresholds for three years longer than planned, meaning as wages rise, more working class people will have to start paying income tax. This arguably breaks her pledge to keep taxes on working people ‘as low as possible’. YouGov polls reveal how Labour’s failure to deliver what they promised has led to previous Labour voters moving to the Lib Dems, Reform and Greens, with 20% of Labour defector groups claiming they believe under Labour the cost of living hasn’t improved enough. 

 

May’s local elections were disastrous for the two main parties as Farage’s Party gained 600 seats in councils, taking control of eighth councils including the Runcorn and Helsby by-election by just six votes and a landslide victory against Labour in Durham. In Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire and Lincolnshire a substantial number of Reform’s wins have come at the expense of Conservative seats particularly in Staffordshire, where Reform gained 49 of the council’s 62 seats leaving the Conservatives with only 10 seats. The local elections were more disastrous for the Conservatives as they lost hundreds of councillors in seats that the party last won in 2021, accompanied by the growing return of the Liberal Democrats.

 

The Greens, Liberal Democrats, and Reform UK are increasingly successful politically, not only in local elections but also in national voting intentions and opinion polls. Polling data indicates rising support amongst different ages posing as a shift away from traditional parties. In spite of Labour being the most popular party amongst youth, between March and November 2025, Labour’s share among 18 to 25 year olds dropped from 43% to 25, while backing for the Green Party rose from 16% to 32% and support for Reform went from 13% to 20%. Such occurrences may be a result of shared disillusionment towards the two main parties, whereby Reform’s strong Tiktok presence has been effective in alluring young male voters to embrace their anti-establishment messaging. On the other hand, the Greens have been more successful in engaging young women through their progressive policies on climate and social justice. Ultimately, these recent surges between the Liberal Democrats, Greens and Reform UK are likely to increase in the next election with 16 to 17 also being given the vote.

 

It is often advised to take this voter fragmentation with a pinch of salt as Labour and the Conservatives still dominate seats in parliament, holding over 80% in the Commons despite the decline in their vote share. Amidst this sudden era of electoral uncertainty, the rise in smaller parties should be viewed with caution as FPTP could limit their influence at a national level as done previously in 2024 whereby Reform won 14.8% of the vote but only 5 seats in parliament, meaning the two party system may still shape UK politics.