The overarching story of international power relations in recent years has been that of American decline. Many observers have acknowledged the seeming rise of a more multipolar global order, with the US increasingly becoming both erratic and unpopular. Significantly, recent surveys suggest that China’s global popularity has surpassed that of the United States. However, the narrative of China’s rise still appears far from certain. China seems unwilling, and perhaps even unable, to take on the US’ past responsibilities as a global hegemon. This article will explore the decline of the US’ global influence and attempt to answer the question of why China may struggle to fill its place.
America’s Decline:
Firstly, how has the US’ global power declined and why has this been the case. A major cause of the decline of US power has been its recent, erratic behaviour on the world stage. This manifested itself in two areas, both with significant implications. Firstly, the USA has accelerated its turn to protectionism massively in Trump’s second term, primarily through massive, yet inconsistent and volatile, tariffs placed on nations across the world which peaked at an effective rate of 19.66%. The damage from this policy was different across the world, and yet the resulting changes in opinion were consistent. US allies in the west felt betrayed by the punitive actions, while many developing nations came to distrust the US as a partner that could predictably and consistently benefit their economic expansion. In both cases the US was no longer a reliable economic partner, causing nations around the world to seek something different, often opting to work with US adversaries such as China.
In addition to the introduction of tariffs, Trump’s economic isolationism was applied ruthlessly to the US’ foreign aid budget. ‘DOGE’ cuts to USAID, amounting to a 43% decline spending obligations, have had devastating impacts on some of the world’s most vulnerable individuals. Furthermore, they have removed a source of goodwill in the developing world towards American administrations.
The second aspect of this is the growth of US military adventurism under Trump. His actions against Venezuela in January were shocking, but ultimately served only as a prelude. The war in Iran has caused massive damage to global opinion of the US while also causing further economic chaos. Nations across the world have not only erupted in moral outroar, as international norms around conflict are upended, but the further economic damage will not be forgotten. By accepting the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a necessary cost for his war, Trump should remember that he is asking every country in the world to bear increased oil costs and rising inflation; many actors will resent his demand to take on a cost estimated at $3.57 trillion.
China’s Rise?
While the story of lessening US influence appears clear, that of China’s corresponding rise is far less certain. The US has forfeited moral authority around a rules-based order, control of international institutions, global goodwill and many of its trading relationships. However, this does not mean that China has claimed any of these. China will struggle to take up the mantle of defending globalisation and free trade with the Yuan undervalued by as much as 30%. This massively lowers the cost of Chinese exports, making it difficult for industries in other countries to compete, creating political friction.
Additionally, China will struggle to claim the mantle of supporting a peaceful, rules-based international order, that being at odds with its Russian ally at war Ukraine, as well as China’s own ambitions for Taiwan. Furthermore, China’s antagonisation of its neighbours has alienated it from potential regional allies. For example, border clashes have made an enemy out of India. Meanwhile, oceanic claims and previous wars have alienated Vietnam, which – despite being another communist state – declines to align with China and pursues a balanced foreign policy. Other actors in SE Asia also “view Washington as a security guarantor, particularly in maritime territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea.” Thus China’s economic and territorial ambitions have alienated potential partners, making it much more difficult to supersede the US’ global power.
It remains true that China lacks the raw power possessed by the United States and will therefore struggle to reach the highs of its global influence. The nation ultimately still has a smaller economy than the US in nominal terms and holds a significantly smaller share of the global economy than the United States at their peak. However, these limitations have been greatly exacerbated by decisions made by China’s leadership.
As mentioned, aggression in the local sphere has damaged China’s credibility, with regional players that could have been much closer partners. Rescinding some of these maximalist claims could help to improve relations and assuage fears of a security threat, encouraging further economic integration.
Additionally, its export economy has drawn the ire of many economic partners due to undervaluation. Allowing the Yuan to appreciate would satisfy some of these concerns while also increasing the wealth of China’s citizens, allowing it to transition towards a more consumption-oriented economy. To further bolster its foreign relations, China could aim to fill the recent gap in foreign aid, demonstrating its commitment to global humanitarian efforts. China’s foreign aid budget averaged only 14.6% of the US equivalent from 2013-18, showing large room for growth.
These changes would help China to cultivate both local and global goodwill. This would greatly improve its global influence, allowing the nation to take on a more active role in global affairs. Ultimately, this could enable China to, at least partially, supplant the hegemonic role of the United States. However, if China fails to improve its standing with its peers, then resistance to its rise from other nations will eventually limit its rise to the top, even if the USA continues its decline.