This Article Was Written Before The Holborn And St Pancras By-Election Occurred
On 8 October, the people of Holborn and St Pancras, a central London constituency encompassing both the cultural hub that is Camden Market and the gateway to Europe for rail travellers in St Pancras International, get the chance to make a decision which can and will shape the ongoing ‘battle of the left’ going into the next general election. Keir Starmer’s old seat goes up for grabs after the former Prime Minister relinquished all positions in British politics in hopes of pursuing a diplomatic role or even a top spot in NATO[1]. What he leaves behind in his wake can be described wholly as a dissatisfied voter base—among other disappointed demographics, of course—but the question remains whether those in Holborn and St Pancras too are dissatisfied enough to look for an alternative to the Labour Party?
During the country’s fascinating bout of local elections this past May—in which I volunteered myself for an unwinnable seat in Restore Britain territory on the Norfolk coast—there was a clear narrative of notable Green wins in former strong Labour towns and boroughs[2]. The argument created by Green Party leader and hopeful Holborn and St Pancras candidate, Zack Polanski, was that of politics of hope and unity opposing the division and unrest being generated by an underperforming Labour government and being stirred further by the latest right-wing force in Nigel Farage’s Reform Party.
Opposing the Greens in the red corner—quite literally—we have Sagal Abdi-Wali, a woman whose remarkable story begins as a Somali refugee who fled to the UK in the 1990s. She has fought hard and come far to become the recently appointed leader of Camden Council and is known for her strong record of public service in the local area, hailed as a “fantastic local champion”[3] by Labour by-election campaign lead, Liam Conlon MP. Labour have held this seat since the days of the old romantic, Michael Foot, and the last forty-three years have only ever seen two Labour MPs at the helm; they will be keen to hold on for at least another three years, despite shrinking popularity in the last two general elections.
On the topic of public popularity, the Greens surged to a staggering 21 per cent in a YouGov poll[4] conducted in March of this year, while Labour continued to stumble in freefall under Starmer’s leadership post-2024. Upon the realisation of Keir Starmer’s natural replacement in the form of Manchester’s golden boy, Andy Burnham, the polls began to make a small U-turn—Keir’s favourite pastime—and along with it, Green numbers began to tumble where a recent poll has them sitting at just 12 per cent[5]. Labour have gone from sitting idly in third just a few months ago to now firing on all cylinders and sitting top of the polls. The ‘Polanski Effect’ has quickly transitioned into the ‘Burnham Effect’.
While the leader of the Greens was quick to lay claim to the leading role in challenging for the Parliamentary seat, it does not go without ruffling some feathers. The local Green contingency within Camden Council believed a member residing and already servicing a smaller region of the wider constituency may be better placed to tackle a meaningful campaign. However, as I write this, an internal election has been undertaken and resulted in Polanski winning[6] the confidence of local party members with a heavy majority, but the fact still remains even some of his own members questioned his ability to competently manage a political party alongside performing everyday constituency work. These kinds of public lapses in faith can often prove damaging in politics.
To add a little further spice into the equation, the self-exiled George Galloway has announced his intention to leave Moscow behind and stand and oppose the Greens. Galloway’s pride and joy, the Workers Party of Britain, has stood aside in recent times to allow Green votes to surge in traditional socialist and northern seats—namely the Gorton and Denton by-election—but this alliance appears to be short-lived. Both Labour and the Greens have indicated a cool and unbothered attitude to the challenge and have resigned Galloway to being that of an attention-seeking political has-been[7]. Only 8 October will tell us the full story of his involvement.
Greens and Galloway aside, there is no doubt Labour remain favourites in this by-election. They have the historical backing and a confident candidate and those opposing them will need a strong and influential campaign, to say the least. I suspect the question Green campaigners and volunteers will be asking on the doors is that of whether residents would rather a fresh new Labour backbencher or the leader of the most progressive major political party in Britain today fighting their corners. Only time will tell.
[2] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g08e97523o
[4] https://news.sky.com/story/greens-overtake-labour-in-sensational-poll-13514420